Ron Fouchier explains why increased transmission of SARS-CoV-2-variants has not been demonstrated, and their ability to displace ancestral variants is due to greater fitness, much like influenza virus antigenic variation leads to better fitness and replacement of previously circulating variants.

Show notes at https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-777/

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42 Comments

  • pizzablender

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Excellent overview on the situation and the future. Which seems pretty bright, given the circumstances.

  • matthew nicholls

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    I have a question. Does natural immunity against the whole virus provide better immunity than vaccination where the immunity is provided for the spike protein only? Can B and T cells tell the difference? Thanks.

  • zedgarden

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    In the end you all agree that the Delta variant escapes immunity and spread from person to person much more easily than previous variants because the virus has a fitness advantage. But it is not yet been proven to be intrinsically more transmissible and therefore it is incorrect to say the Delta variant is more transmissible.
    And you wonder why you don't have more viewers.

  • Jeff Jacobs

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    There's a blind spot here..Antiviral drugs is a far better strategy to end this pan
    The only strategy for vaccinations that will work , is if the entire world population is vaccinated all at the same time and the virus cannot find other hosts.
    Virus in nature will either kill or be accommodated by the host. Survival of the fittest is what occurs in nature.
    Billion of mutations are occurring daily I'm sure.
    It took only one type of Corona virus and one person who contrated it to infect the world.
    As long as there are varients , this disease will never end.Right now there's the Delta, Lamda and who knows what other variants are out there that will infect our vaccinated and unvaccinated population.
    Ivermectin is the answer at this point..
    See flccc.net

  • pander

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Wolbachia also plays a symbiotic role in canine heartworms.

  • Allen Frady

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    His final words are exactly why people who have received two vaccines are wondering if they should be out in the general population getting exposed (as those exposures behave like continuous mild boostering). PS both my kids learned to drive and first cars were/are stick shifts.

  • The Hebrew Barrister

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Does that 76% number include kids under 16? Under 12?

    Once under 12 is approved, that should get the actual vaccinated percentage up by a 2%-3% pretty quickly when the pro-vaccine parents take their kids to get it. mine will be there on day 1.

  • The Hebrew Barrister

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    I do laugh at the microchip conspiracy theory. As vincent points out, government tracking of you has already been accomplished via your smartphone. Or any cell phone for that matter, your location and movements can be tracked even if you're using a basic flip phone.

    Dear conspiracy theorists, at least invent conspiracies that seek to achieve goals that haven't already been achieved.

  • Katie Hettinger

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    In the the 1960, the "New Yorker" public health detectives series chased down mysterious sicknesses striking down people. As a girl, I learned bears carry trichinosis, improperly cleaned chickens can make you sick and only half of a dish can harbor deadly botulism. Public Health need similar media coverage today.

  • a0abes

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    re: coagulation and blood clots. I hope you can comment on the papers mentioned by Dr Campbell, and his assertions about the heightened risk of complications caused by the lack of aspiration during vaccine administration. Please see (at this time): https://youtu.be/e3lx6Scwfhg?t=71

  • Elise Leonard

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    TWiPH ! It’s a great idea.

  • Zinnia Lady

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Very nice – educational

  • suzy QUE

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Please explain about who isolated the coronavirus and do they have the complete genome

  • millie belone

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Professor Racaniello continues his attacks on epidemiologists after making numerous mistakes and utterly foolish predictions proving consistently that he is an idiot savant that does not understand anything outside his area of expertise. Good luck getting any advice from him that is not about Virology.

  • Tim Walsh

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    You forgot to ask him why his notes and email were fully redacted in Fauci’s teleconference email? Surely a smart guy like him would have had some valuable info on the GoF properties of SARS-CoV-2

  • Nancy Hope

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    What about the virus changing so 100 particles are enough to start an infection rather than 500?

  • midlands man

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    I really agree with that E-Mail at 1:24:05. I went to the first COVID post on the cdc Facebook page and straight away it’s either “vaccines don’t work” or “we don’t know what’s really in them”. Most profiles seem somewhat suspicious and comments are super aggressive 🙈

  • Michael Thomas

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    I am not an epidemiologist but I understand basic math. If the rate of increase is stable or reducing with alpha, then suddenly starts doubling every ten days with delta, that is an increase in transmissibility. Some experts get too caught up in being pedantic and overlooking the obvious.

  • michalchik

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    I'm kind of wondering if these people have ever done calculations for Monte Carlo simulations on genetic drift. This idea that this could all be random fluctuations is mathematically naive.

    The magnitude of genetic drift is inversely proportional to the effective population size. So even with numbers as small as 1000 infected and transmitting people genetic drift is almost negligible compared to a very small difference in Fitness. When this gets said well what he'd really like to do is see a study where they looked at a bunch of individuals with different variants and then saw how many people got infected. That's exactly what you're seeing when your tracking population numbers. You're seeing what happens when a bunch of individuals with different variants enter the general population and tracking how many other people they infect.

    And before people bring up founder effects the, founder effect are still genetic drift and they bathe the same mathematics. They are simply the limiting cases where populations are usually extremely small but variance is 0. I've listened to this argument on this channel going on months now and it seems to be an argument from ignorance rather than genuine skepticism. Just look at the damn equation for genetic drift and calculate out some problems or run some simulations and see if you can reproduce tens of thousands of people with one varient transitioning to tens of thousands of people with a different variant in just a dozen Generations period that is natural selection in action not genetic drift.

    I've learned some good things from vincent about the molecular biology of these viruses but his mathematical intuition is just not very good. To understand evolution. I appreciate the desire to be skeptical and I frequently I'm including here but his skepticism is not well-founded

  • Jamie Costello

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    TWIV podcast 777….Thats 777 oppotunities to use the term "RaTG13 …The WHO never use the term either ..but its key evidence for the natutal origin! The truth is SARS-cov-2 and RatG13 were created in the same stable.

  • JC Rising Late ʕ•ᴥ•ʔߛ ̋ l Verified l V l

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    1:03:20 billionrs buying a mcds hbrgr is like c19 ;

  • Professor Pat Pending

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Interesting and informative. My take on this is that too many 'experts' are not as expert as they think or are more expert than they think. Add to this politicians' hyperbole and a dysfunctional press and we get screwed from all directions! (I speak from a UK perspective).

  • JC Rising Late ʕ•ᴥ•ʔߛ ̋ l Verified l V l

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    54:00 same but very different (the annual vx, already talked about in all training guides for clinicians, & tweeted by ceos since 2019 ); 57:00 Tcell probs in flus ; 59:00 natl tcel w flu +++ ;

  • JC Rising Late ʕ•ᴥ•ʔߛ ̋ l Verified l V l

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    47:40 look find – sequencing ; 49:00 10y wane

  • m Patrick

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    When you have far out comments on CDC, they should be redirected to a parallel site that handles the highly inflammatory views and allow "normal" or moderate views on the main site. Some of these platforms are being infected with hackers (a virus) whose main objective is to create discord in the US. Wait! Aren't viruses looking for an easy way to survive without having to work? Aren't we all?

  • JC Rising Late ʕ•ᴥ•ʔߛ ̋ l Verified l V l

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    39:30 does any1 remember alpha – the creep of 1Mil vars in a yr, each more infectious & deadly than the last.

  • Geepee Eff

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Hello Vincent, I've been following your channel for a yearish now, interesting stuff, have listened to your 2021 lectures and never miss a broadcast now.
    What Covid19 has done to me is give me a real interest in viruses and virology and find that all my spare time snow spent studying viruses. I wish i'd never took up window cleaning, although the pay is really good. haha.
    I have a question for you that has puzzled me for years.
    when i was 9-10 years old so 1974-75 i was so ill, i had caught the flu and was in bed for 2 weeks, can't remember how long i was actually ill for.
    I have since found out that at that time there was a russian flu and a swine flu, since then i have been through many flu outbreaks and around people with the flu on many occasions but i have never caught the flu again.
    What my question is is did i develop a lifelong immunity from this episode of flu to all flus?
    Is this normal for flu?

  • Chris Mitchell

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Tranmissible! = transmitted. Looking from the tail.. Postive samples with a given variant measure a case of transmission. The variant transmitted from one host to another. No indication of differential transmissibility.

  • MsJoaniesgarden

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    The same thing is happening to Dr. Fauci on comments that featured Jordan making crazy claims on Fauci's Emails. It was the same mob mentality that attacked the Capitol. They talked of jail, hanging and other hate speech and many mentions of monetary gain and other misinformation and allegations All I can do is list the link and ask them to read it for themselves because no one bothers to read anything, they just eat the red meat every time it's throw out.

  • JA F

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Vincent, the co-pilot’s name is Fiona.

  • samneggs1

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    I think it's ones perspective on the future of the virus. Seasonal flu, as the name implies may never go away so antigenic drift and immune escape are expected. The hope is SARS-CoV-2 can be eliminated so escape is a bad thing. I don't think that if the media switched to using 'antigenic drift and immune escape' the public would freak out less.

  • Skippy

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Seems to me that an increased fitness from “immune escape” (or “antigenic drift”) should result in increased reinfection in the population since their antibodies developed from the original infection would not be as effective. Any thoughts?

  • Gregory Jones

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    you should come to europe, most cars are not automatic.

  • Gregory Jones

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    we do hear about more transmissible flu variants as we get warnings sometimes from health authorities that they think the flu hat season will be more severe and transmissible and hence the need for flu injections.

  • Dora Smith

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Sounds like a pretty semantic argument to me. If the virus attaches more easily or more tightly it is easier to catch, eg, more infectious. If it's more infectious you get it more easily from people around you, eg, it's more contagious. Honestly!

  • Lionel Kimble

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    There are multiple instances from case tracking that one person has infected 5 or 6 people, so wouldn't that be an R number of at least 5

  • C A B

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

    Please explain the process of “antigenic drift, immune escape,” which leads to the development of variants. It might help with understanding of why vaccinations are important. Thanks.

  • Allan Moore

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm
  • Allan Moore

    Posted July 15, 2021 10:52 pm

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